Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
